Rate Lock Advisory

Wednesday, April 17th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory even though there is little to drive trading this morning. Stocks are showing gains with the Dow up 93 points and the Nasdaq up 2 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32 (4.64%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.



30 yr - 4.64%







Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock



General Bond Trends

We don’t have any economic data being released this morning. The only events that we are watching come during afternoon trading today and neither are expected to cause a strong reaction in the bond market or mortgage rates. We are likely seeing overnight strength from a rebound in the international markets carry into this morning’s trading here.



Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

First on our list for today are the results of the 20-year Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 PM ET. It will give us an indication of investor interest for longer-term debt. If the results show a strong demand for the securities, we should see bond prices improve during early afternoon trading, possibly improving mortgage rates slightly. However, a lackluster interest may lead to an upward revision to mortgage pricing.



Fed Beige Book

Also this afternoon will be the release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book report. It is a compilation of economic conditions through the eyes of the Fed’s business contacts throughout each Fed region and is relied on during their FOMC meetings. We usually don’t see a strong reaction to this release in the markets, but the potential for it to happen does exist. The most likely reaction would be a minor move in bonds. Favorable news for mortgage rates would be signs of easing inflation and/or slowing economic activity. If the report does influence the markets, it will happen shortly after the 2:00 PM ET release time.



Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Tomorrow has three moderately important pieces of data set for release. Last week’s unemployment update will be available at 8:30 AM ET. Analysts are expecting to see 215,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed, up from the previous week’s 211,000. Rising claims are a sign of a weakening employment sector. A larger number of initial claims would be good news for mortgage pricing.



Existing Home Sales from National Assoc of Realtors

The remaining two releases will come at 10:00 AM ET. March's Existing Homes Sales numbers from the National Association of Realtors will give us key figures on the housing sector by tracking home resales in the U.S. Forecasts show a decline in sales, pointing to a softening housing sector. This would be good news for mortgage rates even though it will take a wide variance from expectations for the report to cause a noticeable change in rates.



Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for March will close out this week's economic releases. This Conference Board index attempts to predict economic activity over the next three to six months. At best we can expect to see a slight movement in rates as a result of this index, which is expected to show no change from February's reading, meaning they are predicting economic activity will be flat over the next several months. Favorable news for mortgage rates would be a large decline.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

SLI Mortgage, LLC

NMLS# 1599234

809 Copper Frond Way
Austin, TX 78748